Beijing, August 17 - Driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, precious metals overseas saw a volatile rise on August 16, with gold prices unilaterally soaring.

Both international futures and spot gold prices reached historical highs.

By the close of the day, the most active December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange had risen by $53.8 to $2,546.2 per ounce, a 2.16% increase.

The price touched an all-time high of $2,548.3 per ounce during the session.

On the same day, the international spot gold price also surpassed the $2,500 per ounce mark for the first time in history, reaching a high of $2,509 per ounce intraday.

Amidst the Fed's imminent restart of the rate cut cycle, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and rising uncertainties surrounding the US election, gold prices have recently regained their upward momentum.

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By the close on the 16th, New York futures gold had accumulated a 2.94% increase for the week, while spot gold rose 3.19% for the week.

Gold prices have accumulated a 21% increase year-to-date.

Additionally, the recent weakening of the US dollar has also provided support for the rise in gold prices.

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell below 103 again on the 16th, dropping 0.63% for the day, marking a third consecutive week of decline and the longest losing streak since March.

The index has accumulated a nearly 1.6% drop so far in August.

News-wise, although the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for August, released on the 16th, recorded an initial value of 67.8, which is not only better than the expected 66.9 but also a significant rebound from the previous value of 66.4.

However, earlier that day, the total annualized number of new housing starts in the United States for July was only 1.23 million units, lower than expected and the previous value, and the total number of building permits in July was also only 1.396 million units, which is also below market expectations and the previous value.

Analysis suggests that despite some recent US economic data performing better than expected, the market's expectation that the Fed will cut rates in September remains unaffected, with the difference only in the extent of the rate cut.

According to the CME's "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 74%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 26%.

Additionally, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the labor market and some economic leading indicators are flashing warning signals, and there are concerns about a sustained rise in unemployment rates.

He reiterated that the US economy has shown no signs of overheating, so central bank officials should act cautiously and not maintain restrictive policies for too long.

As gold prices break through the psychological barrier of $2,500 per ounce, market bullish sentiment is high.

Some market analysts have said that after two weeks of intense volatility, gold prices have broken through the $2,500 mark this week, soaring to a historical high, as the bulls finally turned their will to go long into reality.

It is worth noting that behind the recent rise in gold prices, the increase in investment demand has been instrumental.

The latest report from the World Gold Council shows that due to strong inflows into gold ETFs in the European and American markets, global gold ETFs attracted $3.7 billion in July 2024, the strongest performance since April 2022 and the third consecutive month of net inflows.

In particular, funds from North America recorded a net inflow of $2 billion that month.

Looking at high-frequency data, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, had holdings of 8,549.7 tons as of August 16, an increase of 7.19 tons in a single day.

Since July, the holdings of this ETF have increased by nearly 26 tons.

The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also shows that as of the week ending August 13, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 34,197 contracts to 219,672 contracts.

Looking ahead, market analysts said that given the global interest rate expectations will remain low, the bullish outlook for gold has not changed.

In the short term, market attention will shift to the Jackson Hole conference and Fed Chairman Powell's speech to gain more insight into the Fed's rate cut path.

Driven by the rise in gold prices, the most active September silver futures contract on the New York market on the 16th closed at $29.085 per ounce, up 66.7 cents from the previous trading day, a 2.35% increase.

The October platinum futures contract closed at $962.8 per ounce, down $2.3 from the previous trading day, a 0.24% decrease, but still rebounded more than 1% from the day's low of $949.4 at the close.